EURUSD Analysis
EURUSD is falling from the lower high area of the descending channel in the higher timeframe weekly chart. In the 4-hour timeframe EURUSD broke the higher low area of the ascending channel.
EURUSD Update
EURUSD spiked up due to Trump threaten about firing Fed’s Powell which leads to the SL price. However, EURUSD is consolidating at the breakout area technically. However, EURUSD still has a chance to fall from the breakout area of the Ascending channel.
Reason:
Trump reportedly drafted a letter and floated the idea of removing Fed Chair Powell, triggering a sharp selloff in the U.S. dollar before Powell’s critics, including Reuters, the U.S. dollar dropped by around 0.6% to 0.9% during the market uncertainty. Check the Reutuers Trump Statement here.
Later, U.S. President Donald Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but he kept the door open to the possibility and renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates.
Please note In the forex market, technical works 80% of the time, and fundamental works 20% of the time. This time fundamental wins.
The initial headlines sparked sharp market reactions across all major USD pairs, including EURUSD, Gold (XAUSUD), USDJPY, USDCHF, etc..
Also Due to the release of more economic news mentioned below, the market is not making technical movements at this time.
Why EUR is Stronger
ECB Policy Shift – The European Central Bank paused rate cuts, signaling caution—making the euro more attractive than lower-yielding currencies like the USD.
Global Dollar Diversification – Central banks are reducing dollar reliance and increasing euro reserves, boosting demand for the euro.
Eurozone Economic Resilience – Strong recovery signs and increased investment (especially in green/tech sectors) are lifting confidence in the euro.
U.S. Trade & Fiscal Weakness – U.S. debt, trade deficits, and political risks are pressuring the dollar—shifting investor interest toward the euro.
Why USD is Weaker
High U.S. Debt – Rising government debt is eroding investor confidence in the dollar.
Slower Economic Growth – Weakening GDP and job data reduce dollar demand.
Trade Policy Uncertainty – Volatile U.S. trade actions are unsettling global markets.
Expected Fed Rate Cuts – Lower rates reduce returns on dollar assets, weakening the currency.
Please note In the forex market, technical works 80% of the time, and fundamental works 20% of the time. This time fundamental wins. It’s crucial to remain patient and wait for the next good opportunity signal.
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